Assessing Canada's Current Modular Manufacturing Muscle

Capacity Check: Assessing Canada's Current Modular Manufacturing Muscle

As Canada commits to ambitious housing targets, a sober assessment of our current modular manufacturing capacity is essential. The reality is that our capacity is nascent but growing rapidly, and it is currently insufficient to meet national demand without strategic expansion.

The Current Landscape

• Fragmented & Regional: The industry comprises dozens of small-to-mid-sized manufacturers, each typically serving a regional market. There are few true national players with mass-production capabilities.

• Under-Capitalized: Many existing facilities are workshops scaling into factories, lacking the automation and capital investment seen in global leaders like Sweden or Japan.

• Proven in Niches: Capacity is strong in certain segments like workforce housing for resource projects, low-rise multi-family buildings, and custom high-end homes. Volumetric high-rise residential capacity is more limited.

Evidence of Growth & Intent
Recent announcements signal rapid scaling:

• A new 100,000 sq. ft. facility in Collingwood, ON, aiming for 1,000+ units/year.

• A new factory in Belledune, NB, with a target of 400-500 homes/year.

• Major developers like Great Gulf investing in dedicated modular divisions.

The Gap

Despite this growth, to build 3.5 million homes by 2030 as CMHC suggests, even a 10% prefab target would require 350,000 units—a volume that would swamp today's capacity.

Conclusion

Canada has a capable foundation and the growth trajectory is positive. However, we lack the concentrated, high-volume gigafactory capacity needed to move the needle on a national crisis. Strategic public and private investment is required to transform a cottage industry into an industrial pillar.

Sources:

1. CMHC: "Canada’s Housing Supply Shortages: Restoring Affordability" (2022).

2. Regional news reports on new factory openings in ON and NB.

3. Prefab Solutions analysis of industry fragmentation.